Food inflation in the Global South is no longer a temporary shock tied to a bad harvest or a logistics glitch. It is a structural shift. Across Africa, South Asia and Latin America, the cost of basic calories — grains, oils, vegetables, eggs — has risen faster than wages for more than four years. The crisis is disguised by the normality of markets staying open and shelves remaining stocked, yet the affordability of those shelves has collapsed for millions of low-income households. Behind the basket, however, lies a chain of global forces that national governments can only partially influence.

The Fertiliser Shock That Never Fully Reversed

The price of fertiliser may sound like a technical footnote, but in the Global South it determines everything from maize yields in Kenya to rice output in Bangladesh. When natural gas prices spiked during the Russia–Ukraine war, fertiliser costs followed. Even after energy markets eased, producers kept prices elevated, citing shipping and financing costs. The result: farmers planted less, harvested less and passed higher costs downstream.

Climate Variability Turns Seasonal Markets Into Dice Games

Climate shocks have become the background rhythm of agriculture. Heatwaves scorch wheat in India. Erratic rains leave Senegalese groundnut farmers exposed. Floods in Pakistan wipe out stored grain. Cyclones disrupt shipping routes in the Indian Ocean. Climate variability is no longer the exception; it is the operating environment.

Countries once confident in self-sufficiency must import staples at precisely the moment global prices are highest — compounding the shock through freight, insurance and currency depreciation.

Shipping, Choke Points and the Hidden Cost of Distance

Global food trade is transported through routes now strained by geopolitics. Attacks in the Red Sea divert shipping; drought in the Panama Canal restricts passage; congestion at Asian transshipment hubs increases delays. Every detour adds days, fuel costs and insurance premiums. Import-dependent states — most of Africa, much of South Asia — pay these hidden surcharges long before a tomato reaches a market stall.

Currency Depreciation Makes Imports Permanently Expensive

A structural weakness in many Global South economies is the mismatch between domestic demand and foreign currency earnings. When currencies slide — the naira, the cedi, the Egyptian pound, the Pakistani rupee — imported food becomes instantly more expensive. Even local food inflation rises, because seeds, machinery, fertiliser and fuel are priced in dollars.

The Supermarket Paradox: More Choice, Less Affordability

Urban consumers face a paradox. Markets look full. Stores are stocked. But basket sizes shrink as households switch to cheaper staples, skip proteins and reduce fresh produce consumption. Retailers also engage in "shrinkflation": smaller packages at the same price, often unnoticed by overstretched consumers.

Corporate Concentration Raises Prices Even When Costs Fall

Global food supply chains are dominated by a handful of trading giants — in grains, oils, fertilisers and shipping. With high market concentration, price increases pass through quickly. Price reductions do not. Governments attempt to regulate margins or subsidise staples, but fiscal capacity is limited and political backlash is immediate when subsidies are withdrawn.

Urban Hunger, Political Anger

Food inflation has deep political consequences. It fuels urban protests, shapes election cycles and undermines confidence in governments that appear unable to stabilise daily life. Unlike fuel or electricity, food inflation directly affects every household, every day. It is both an economic variable and a political accelerant.

Why Traditional Policy Tools Are Not Enough

Central banks can raise interest rates, but that does little to influence global fertiliser markets or global shipping costs. Trade ministries can cut tariffs, but not when domestic industries depend on protection. Governments can subsidise, but fiscal space is stretched thin. The result is a patchwork of policies that treat symptoms rather than causes.

The Future: A New Geography of Food Risk

The world is heading toward a split: regions with climate-resilient, technologically advanced farming systems and regions where food production remains vulnerable to shocks. The Global South sits disproportionately in the latter category. Without massive investment in climate-smart agriculture, storage, irrigation, logistics and risk pooling, food inflation will remain structurally high.