THE MERIDIAN
Global South Perspective
Monday, 3 February 2026
Volume 2, Issue 2 · February 2026
After Trump, America Will Not Be the Same Again
The inflection point arrives. Institutional weakening in the United States transmits globally through demonstration effects and reduced constraints. From state capture mechanisms to economic fragility beneath headline stability, The Meridian maps how power absolutism spreads, how small states absorb volatility, and why February 2026 marks clarity on how far we've travelled from assumptions that once seemed permanent.
The world in brief
United States
Trump's second term begins with institutional recalibration—executive power expanding through appointments and selective enforcement rather than constitutional confrontation. The demonstration effect reaches globally.
Mauritius
State capture without coups—budget rigidity at 73% of expenditure, courts processing slowly enough that delay becomes strategy, oversight bodies reporting without enforcement teeth.
Asia Manufacturing
Vietnam's exports hit $350bn (75% of GDP) whilst India reaches $450bn (14% of GDP). State capacity, not democracy, determines industrial execution speed.
China Growth
Credit impulse negative as Beijing prioritises productivity over debt-fuelled expansion. Property sector stress continues but stimulus remains withheld—global spillover effects constrain peripheral growth.
Dollar Dominance
Dedollarisation rhetoric persists but reserve status endures. Trust, liquidity, and legal frameworks maintain dominance despite bilateral swap lines and trade invoicing diversification.
Conflict Economics
Major-power war remains economically impossible—estimates suggest 20-40% global GDP reduction in first year through supply chain collapse, financial system failure, semiconductor halt.
Markets at a Glance
📊 The Meridian Data Desk
Ibovespa
162,890
-0.8%
MOEX
2,156
-1.9%
Sensex
84,923
-0.8%
SSE Comp
3,845
-1.7%
JSE All-Share
112,456
-0.6%
SEMDEX
2,067
-1.1%
💱 Foreign Exchange
USD/BRL 5.92
USD/RUB 82.8
USD/INR 92.1
USD/CNY 7.12
USD/ZAR 17.6
USD/MUR 47.2
USD/BDT 121.3
IRR/USD 1,420,000
🌾 Commodities & Critical Minerals
Rice
$10.9/cwt
Coffee
$3.53/lb
Wheat
$5.28/bu
Copper
$5.90/lb
Lithium
$24k/t
Cobalt
$56k/t
Cover Story & Lead Analysis
Start Here
A Note from the Editor
An introduction to the February 2026 issue — what we're tracking, where risks cluster, and the analytical approach behind The Meridian.
Read the letter →Geopolitics & Regional Analysis
State Capture
Development Models & Power Analysis
China-India Relations
Global Finance & Energy
Technology & Sovereignty
Opinion & Analysis
Food, Society & Business
RESEARCH SERIES
The Meridian in Practice
Economic realism beyond textbooks. A framework for understanding how markets, power, and institutions actually work.
Research Paper I
Power Follows Incentives, Not Intentions
How incentive systems shape behaviour predictably. Why well meaning politicians capture states, and why reform efforts disappoint.
Research Paper II
The Myth of Free Markets
Why markets have never been free, and why pretending they are distorts policy. From Silicon Valley to the City of London.
Introductory Paper
Markets, Power, and Capture
An introduction to the framework. Understanding how institutional design determines who wins and who loses in economic systems.