The Meridian · World Ahead 2026
The Great Re-Ordering
How the Global South, energy transitions and geopolitical fractures will reshape commodity markets in 2026
THE COMMODITY WORLD entering 2026 bears little resemblance to the pre-pandemic era. China's steel demand fell below 50% of global consumption in 2024 for the first time since 2018, marking a historic shift in the architecture of industrial demand.[1] India, Indonesia, the Gulf states and Africa now anchor baseline demand for steel, cement, energy and fertilisers.
The energy transition has cleaved markets into two realities: one powered by hydrocarbons, another by lithium, copper, cobalt and rare earths. After the 2024 lithium glut, markets are tightening rapidly—Fastmarkets projects near-balance in 2025 and deficit by 2026.[2] Copper hit $5 per pound in May 2024 for the first time in history, driven by aging mines and EV demand.[3]
Freight routes have pivoted to the Indian Ocean. Food markets remain volatile after India's 2023-2024 rice export ban disrupted 40% of global exports.[4] The commodity economy of 2026 is not cyclical—it is structural, geopolitical, and increasingly South-centric.
I. The Multipolar Supercycle
The classic commodity supercycle was driven by China's industrialisation. The 2026 version is multipolar. In 2024, Chinese steel consumption fell to 869 million tonnes, while the rest of the world consumed 882 million tonnes the first time the world has outpaced China since 2018.[1]
India leads the new demand order. Steel consumption grew 8% in 2024 and is projected to maintain this pace through 2026, driven by infrastructure investment and manufacturing expansion.[5] The developing world excluding China is forecast to grow steel demand by 4.2% in 2025 and an estimated 4.5% in 2026.
Implications: Commodity prices will remain structurally elevated even without global booms. Iron ore, coking coal and steel-intensive materials face a demand map that has shifted decisively southward and supply chains built for China's peak will struggle to adapt.
II. Strategic Minerals: The Bottleneck Tightens
Energy-transition minerals define industrial power in 2026. China controls processing, Chile and the DRC hold reserves, while the United States and Europe chase diversification at speed that lags demand.
Copper: Global production reached 23 million tonnes in 2024, with prices hitting $5/lb in May the first time in history.[3] Chile's output stands at 5.3 million tonnes (23% global share), while the DRC surged to 3.3 million tonnes on 12.6% year-on-year growth.[6]
Lithium: After severe oversupply in 2024 (~154,000 tonnes), the market is tightening rapidly. Production grew 18% to 240,000 tonnes while consumption surged 29% to 220,000 tonnes, driven by EV batteries (85%+ of demand).[7]
Rare earths: China's stranglehold remains absolute. The country produced 270,000 tonnes in 2024 (69% of global mining) and controls approximately 90% of refining capacity.[8] The U.S. produced 45,000 tonnes but remains 80% import-dependent, with 70% sourced from China.[9]
Phosphates: Morocco and Saudi Arabia have emerged as fertiliser superpowers. Morocco holds 67% of global reserves (50 billion tonnes) and produced 30 million tonnes in 2024.[10] Saudi Arabia contributed 9.5 million tonnes. Together, they account for over 40% of global phosphate fertilizer production.[11]
| Mineral | Top Producer | 2024 Output | 2026 Forecast | Price Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | Chile | 5.3M MT | 5.6M MT | ↑ +15% |
| Lithium | Australia | 240K MT | 280K MT | ↑ +35% |
| Rare Earths | China | 270K MT | 290K MT | → Stable |
| Phosphates | Morocco | 30M MT | 33M MT | ↑ +8% |
III. Food Markets: India's Export Weapon
Food markets in 2026 are shaped by three forces: El Niño recovery, Black Sea volatility, and the weaponisation of grain exports. India's 2023-2024 rice export ban—covering 40% of global exports—sent prices surging 20% and exposed the fragility of food security in Africa and South Asia.[4]
Kenya's rice imports collapsed from 817,000 tonnes to near zero after India's July 2023 ban. Madagascar's imports fell 44%. Bangladesh, India's largest rice trading partner, faced severe shortages.[12] By August 2023, global rice prices hit 15-year highs. The ban was lifted in September 2024, but the precedent has been set.
Implications: Food inflation becomes a structural political variable. Governments in import-dependent nations will prioritise bilateral grain deals over open markets. Currency weakness compounds the problem—Egypt, Kenya, Bangladesh and Pakistan face triple pressures: high prices, elevated freight costs, and depreciated currencies.
IV. Energy: The Metal-Intensive Transition
Hydrocarbons will stabilise in a $75-90/barrel band for Brent crude in 2026 as OPEC+ calibrates output and U.S. shale growth slows. But the energy transition narrative obscures a critical reality: solar, wind and EVs are not deflationary—they are metal-intensive.
Solar panel input costs are rising. Polysilicon production remains concentrated in China, while silver and copper prices climb. Module prices stabilised in 2024, but input inflation erodes margins. Grid-scale battery storage (90 GWh deployed in 2024) demands lithium, while wind turbines require rare earths for permanent magnets.
LNG: Asian spot prices tighten in H2 2026 to $14-16/MMBtu as data center demand accelerates.
Renewables: Solar deployment grows 25% but faces input cost inflation of 6-8%. Wind installations slow due to rare earth bottlenecks and permitting delays.
V. Freight: The Indian Ocean Pivot
The freight map of 2026 has been redrawn. Red Sea disruptions persist, forcing vessels via the Cape of Good Hope at significant cost and delay. The Mombasa-Gulf-India corridor is now the world's fastest-growing trade route.
Bulk carriers for minerals hit multi-year utilisation highs as copper from the DRC, nickel from Indonesia, and rare earth concentrates from Australia flow to Asian refineries. East African ports expand capacity to handle Gulf manufacturing supply chains.
VI. The 2026 Commodity Scorecard
| Winners | Key Advantage | 2026 Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Phosphate supremacy, energy transition capital | ↑↑ |
| Chile | Copper reserves, production rebound to 6M MT | ↑↑ |
| DRC | Copper/cobalt surge, Kamoa expansion | ↑↑ |
| India | Steel demand anchor, export leverage | ↑ |
| Indonesia | 60% of global nickel, downstream push | ↑ |
| Vulnerable | Key Risk | 2026 Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Egypt & Kenya | Food import collapse, FX pressure | ↓↓ |
| Pakistan | Fertiliser/fuel dependency, currency crisis | ↓↓ |
| Bangladesh | Rice dependency, India exposure | ↓ |
| Small island states | Freight cost sensitivity, food import bills | ↓ |
VII. What Institutions Should Monitor in 2026
- China's metals stockpiling: Strategic reserve levels for copper, aluminum, zinc
- India's export policies: Rice, sugar, onion ban probabilities tied to election cycles
- Red Sea premium trends: Freight routing costs via Cape of Good Hope
- Gulf upstream acquisitions: Saudi/UAE purchases in African copper, phosphates, rare earths
- Lithium supply response: Mine closures vs. new capacity in Australia, Argentina, Chile
- La Niña probability: NOAA/WMO forecasts for late-2026 weather disruption
- Rare earth diversification: Progress on non-China refining capacity (currently <10%)
Methodology & Sources
This analysis draws on verified data from the U.S. Geological Survey (Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025), World Steel Association (Short Range Outlook 2024), International Energy Agency (Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025), FAO, USDA, Fastmarkets, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and national statistics agencies. Price forecasts reflect consensus estimates from investment banks and commodity analysts. Production figures are for calendar year 2024 unless stated. Projections for 2026 represent The Meridian's base-case scenarios. Full citations provided below. Data current as of December 7, 2025.
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