Politics · Economics · Power
Global South Brief · The Meridian
Global South Brief · Political Economy · Economic Intelligence

Politics tells you what was decided.
Economics tells you who pays.

GSBrief follows legislation, parliamentary records, budgets, central banks, ministries, trade flows, markets and official data to understand how political decisions move through economies, institutions and everyday life.

Read the document. Follow the money. Explain the consequence.

The Brief

Reporting, analysis and investigations across politics, economics, trade and power.
The Tenge Is Stable. The Base Rate Is 16.25%. The Cost of Borrowing Is Still Killing the Private Sector. - GSBrief - The Meridian
Markets · Central Asia · Kazakhstan · Monetary Policy

The Tenge Is Stable. The Base Rate Is 16.25%. The Cost of Borrowing Is Still Killing the Private Sector.

The NBK cut rates four times in 2026 from 18% to 16.25%. The SME lending rate is 20%. The weighted average business lending rate was 22.3% in November 2025. GSBrief tracks the gap between the policy rate and the commercial rate and asks who the architecture serves.

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Latest Analysis

The development is the beginning of the story. The consequence is usually more interesting.
Uzbekistan Has Opened Its Economy. Will the Vested Interests Let It Last?
Analysis · Uzbekistan · Central Asia

Uzbekistan Has Opened Its Economy. Will the Vested Interests Let It Last?

State participation fell from 55% to 37%. GDP grew 7.7% in 2025. FDI surged 60%. GSBrief asks whether the second phase of reform can reach the sectors where it costs something.

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The Fed Raises Rates to Fight American Inflation. Nairobi, Lusaka and Karachi Pay the Bill.
Analysis · USA · Global South

The Fed Raises Rates to Fight American Inflation. Nairobi, Lusaka and Karachi Pay the Bill.

The September 2026 hike reactivates the mechanism that cost developing countries $1.4 trillion in debt service in 2023. GSBrief maps who pays and why.

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Africa Digs the Minerals. The World Sells the Products Back. The Gap Is Where the Wealth Disappears.
Analysis · Africa · Critical Minerals

Africa Digs the Minerals. The World Sells the Products Back. The Gap Is Where the Wealth Disappears.

Africa holds 30% of global critical mineral reserves and earns 10% of revenues. Raw exports: $11bn. Full battery assembly potential: $1.1 trillion. GSBrief quantifies the gap.

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Europe Built a Carbon Border Tax That Will Reshape Industry Across Africa and Asia
Analysis · Europe · Global South

Europe Built a Carbon Border Tax That Will Reshape Industry Across Africa and Asia. Nobody Voted on That Part.

CBAM entered full force January 2026. Revenue flows to Brussels. Mozambique sends 97% of its aluminium to the EU. GSBrief examines who designed the rules and who pays.

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Kazakhstan's Educated Youth Cannot Afford a Business Loan
Analysis · Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan's Educated Youth Cannot Afford a Business Loan

The base rate is 16.25%. Commercial business lending runs at 22.3%. GSBrief examines the gap and asks who the monetary architecture is actually serving.

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The West Imposed Sanctions on Russia. The Global South Paid the Food and Energy Bill.
Analysis · Global South · Geopolitics

The West Imposed Sanctions on Russia. The Global South Paid the Food and Energy Bill.

The FAO Food Price Index hit its highest level since 1990. Russia and Ukraine supplied 30% of global wheat. The countries that absorbed the food price shock were not the ones that had sanctioned anyone.

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Kazakhstan's January 2022 Protests Were Not a Coup Attempt. They Were an Economic Event.
Investigation · Kazakhstan · Political Economy

Kazakhstan's January 2022 Protests Were Not a Coup Attempt. They Were an Economic Event.

A fuel price doubled overnight in an oil-producing region. 238 people died. The government called it a coup attempt. GSBrief reads the economic data and reaches a different conclusion.

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Open Files

Questions that require documents, data and time rather than another opinion.
The Corridor That Carries Other People's Goods — Investigation 001 — Central Asia
Investigation 001 · Central Asia · The Corridor Test

The Corridor That Carries Other People's Goods

Central Asia carries 0.1% of all China-Europe sea cargo. The infrastructure is state-funded. GSBrief applies the Corridor Test and asks whether the investment creates productive capacity or a subsidised toll road.

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Afghanistan Is Diverting the Amu Darya. Uzbekistan Will Lose 250,000 Jobs.
Investigation 002 · Central Asia · Afghanistan

Afghanistan Is Diverting the Amu Darya. Uzbekistan Will Lose 250,000 Jobs.

The Qosh Tepa Canal. A 285km diversion with no binding treaty framework. A sovereign water crisis developing in slow motion. GSBrief reads the hydrology data and examines the legal void.

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Kazakhstan Is Spending 5.3 Trillion Tenge to Reform Its Sovereign Wealth Fund
Investigation 003 · Kazakhstan · The Record

Kazakhstan Is Spending 5.3 Trillion Tenge to Reform Its Sovereign Wealth Fund. The Money Stays Inside the State.

GSBrief reads the budget lines, procurement records and ownership data against the official reform announcements. The documents describe a different word for what is happening.

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Markets

Price movements matter when they become economic events.
Cobalt Crashed. The DRC Banned Exports. The Price Spiked. Africa Still Did Not Capture the Value.
Markets · Africa · Cobalt

Cobalt Crashed. The DRC Banned Exports. The Price Spiked. Africa Still Did Not Capture the Value.

Cobalt fell 74% from peak to trough. The DRC banned exports. Prices surged 160%. The quota restricts 2026 supply to less than half of 2024 production. GSBrief follows the money.

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Copper, Lithium, Manganese. Africa Prices the Ore. The World Prices the Product. The Margin Lives Elsewhere.
Markets · Africa · Critical Minerals

Copper, Lithium, Manganese. Africa Prices the Ore. The World Prices the Product. The Margin Lives Elsewhere.

Africa holds 61% of global manganese reserves, produces 17% of copper, supplies 14% of lithium. It processes almost none of it. GSBrief tracks three minerals across the same structural gap.

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The Tenge Is Stable. The Base Rate Is 16.25%. The Cost of Borrowing Is Still Killing the Private Sector.
Markets · Central Asia · Kazakhstan

The Tenge Is Stable. The Base Rate Is 16.25%. The Cost of Borrowing Is Still Killing the Private Sector.

Four rate cuts in 2026. SME lending at 20%. Weighted business lending rate at 22.3% in November 2025. GSBrief tracks the gap between the policy rate and the commercial rate.

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Four Regions. One Political Economy.

National decisions increasingly produce consequences far beyond national borders.
GSBrief · Asia

Asia

China, India, Central Asia and the economies reshaping the Asian century. The continent where the next global order is being negotiated.

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Africa — landscape and economic transformation
GSBrief · Africa

Africa

States, resources, trade, institutions and economic transformation. The continent with the fastest-growing labour force and the most unresolved debt architecture.

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GSBrief · Europe

Europe

Regulation, industry, fiscal policy, security and the external consequences of European decisions. What Brussels decides, the world absorbs.

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USA — New York financial district
GSBrief · USA

USA

Washington, the dollar, industrial policy, trade and American economic power. The decisions made here determine the cost of borrowing everywhere else.

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The Meridian · Economic Intelligence

When the brief is not enough.

The Meridian Economic Intelligence develops deeper strategic reports, sector studies, country intelligence and institutional research for organisations that need more than the public article. Our work focuses on the intersection between political decisions, economic structure, regulation, trade and capital.

Trade Regulation Political Economy Country Intelligence Industrial Policy Macroeconomics Sovereign Debt Investment
Institutional Research →
Commission GSBrief

Commission reporting, analysis or research.

GSBrief undertakes commissioned reporting and analysis covering political economy, economics, trade, regulation and international affairs. We work from primary documents, official data and original research, with particular depth across Africa, Asia, Europe and the United States.

editor@themeridian.info →